SNOWMASS VILLAGE — The real estate market in Snowmass Village is progressing a little more slowly than Aspen’s, according to a presentation by broker associate Andrew Ernemann, of BJ Adams and Co., on Aug. 9. Ernemann added in an interview on Aug. 10 that he believes the Snowmass Village market is in a year of re-establishment, as it follows Aspen into a more stable environment.
The presentation was part of the 2012 Aspen/Snowmass State of the Real Estate and Tourism Economy symposium, hosted by BJ Adams. Jim Taylor, a marketing and branding consultant, also spoke there about the behavior of the wealthiest Americans and their interest in second homes in Aspen.
Ernemann is a Roaring Fork Valley native and president-elect of the Aspen Board of Realtors. Ernemann used a graph in the presentation to demonstrate the cycle of attitudes in a real estate market and what point in the cycle Aspen, Basalt and Snowmass Village each are in 2012. Ernemann said Snowmass Village is in the “hope” stage.
The number of sales — as well as the sales dollar volume, average sales price and price per square foot — has been down in Snowmass Village over the past year. Those decreases each amounted to only about 10 percent.
“You have to hit the bottom before you can head back up,” Ernemann said.
Ernemann said on Aug. 10 that prices in Snowmass have flattened out over the past six months.
“It could simply be that last year started out strong,” Ernemann said. He also said that some buyers who normally would only be able to afford property in Snowmass Village might have found something affordable in Aspen last year that they chose instead.
Land sales in Snowmass Village have stabilized, but single-family home sales are down, which Ernemann said wasn’t so much concerning as just “odd.”
Ernemann cited the soon-to-close sale of Base Village, the Westin coming to the mall and investments in Snowmass by Aspen Skiing Co. as reasons for hope in Snowmass real estate.
“Those three things will have a meaningful impact on the Snowmass market this winter,” he said.
Sales and prices in Aspen haven’t changed significantly year over year, across all property types. Ernemann said Aspen is past the point of thinking in terms of recovery from the recession.
“For Aspen, this is the new norm,” he said.
He says this year will be the year of establishment of the new norm for Snowmass Village, which he says is a year or two behind Aspen. There could be some upward pressure on prices, especially for ski-in, ski-out homes and condos and off-slope properties of quality. Sales and prices are still far below where they were in 2005-07, even 2008, Ernemann said, and it could be five years before they reach a comparable level.
“For people expecting recovery to get back to … higher levels, they may have to temper those expectations,” Ernemann said. “I think we’re at a pretty good level … It’s a very achievable, sustainable environment.”
Taylor, whose company Harrison Group surveys affluent and wealthy people on an annual basis, said he was trying to give a forecast of what will happen in Aspen and explain the point of view of the wealthiest Americans.
Taylor spoke extensively about “worth” buyers, who focus on quality, craftsmanship and service in making a purchase, versus “value” buyers, who choose the best price.
“A lot of people do want that, a lot of people who have the means,” Ernemann said. “(It’s important) that they feel at the end of the day it was a worthwhile experience … that they cherished with their family, or whatever it was.”
Ernemann said some of those “worth” buyers probably would be looking at Snowmass Village, but he doesn’t want to do a disservice to the fact that different people like different things. He did say that Snowmass Village has expanded its appeal.
“(Snowmass Village) appeals to so many more people now than 10 to 15 years ago,” he said. “Snowmass continues, to me, to get better.”
Ernemann is the real estate broker for the city of Aspen. He also conducts the Aspen/Snowmass Business Confidence Survey.
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